上海市建筑领域碳中和预测分析
摘要：基于推动构建人类命运共同体的责任担当和实现可持续发展的内在要求，中国将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。上海作为中国东部的国际大都市，建筑领域承担着重要的减排任务和责任。本文应用排放因子法测算了2005—2019年上海市建筑领域二氧化碳排放量，以Kaya恒等式为基础建立了碳排放计算模型，结合情景分析法，预测并比较了不同情景下2020—2060年上海市建筑领域碳排放量。结果显示，延续现有政策的情景下，建筑领域能够实现2025年的控制目标，但为了实现2060年的碳中和目标，需要强化现有的节能措施力度。最后根据预测结果，提出了上海市建筑领域节能减排措施建议。
关键词：碳排放建筑领域碳中和Kaya恒等式情景分析
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[5] 潘毅群，梁育民，朱明亚.碳中和目标背景下的建筑碳排放计算模型研究综述[J].暖通空调，2021,51(7):37- 48.
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[8] 洪竞科，李沅潮，蔡伟光.多情景视角下的中国碳达峰路径模拟：基于RICE-LEAP模型[J].资源科学，2021,43(4):639- 651.
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[16] 李远钊，吴雨婷，于娟，等.基于SVR的高层办公建筑全生命周期碳排放预测模型：以天津地区为例[J].建筑节能(中英文),2021,49(9):25- 30.
[17] 王京京，卫佳佳.时间序列下北京市建筑运行碳排放变化特征与情景模拟[J].北京工业大学学报，2022,48(3):220- 229.
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[19] FLEISHER C S,BENSOUSSAN B E.Strategic and competitive analysis:methods and techniques for analyzing business competition[M].State of New Jersey:Prentice Hall,2003:1.
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[23] ANG B W,CHOI K H.Decomposition of aggregate energy and gas emission intensities for industry:a refined Divisia index method[J].The energy journal,1997,18(3):23- 28.
[24] KAHN H,WIENER A J.Year 2000:a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years[J].American journal of sociology,1968,74(2):200- 210.
[25] 娄伟.情景分析理论研究[J].未来与发展，2013,36(8):30- 37.
[26] 刘明达，蒙吉军，刘碧寒.国内外碳排放核算方法研究进展[J].热带地理，2014,34(2):248- 258.
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Prediction and analysis of carbon neutrality in building sector in Shanghai
Abstract: Based on the responsibility of promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and the inherent requirements of achieving sustainable development, China will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. As an international metropolis in eastern China, Shanghai has an important emission reduction task and responsibility in the building sector. In this paper, the emission factor method is used to measure the carbon dioxide emissions in the building sector in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019, and a carbon emission calculation model is established based on the Kaya identity. Combined with the scenario analysis method, the carbon emissions of building sector in Shanghai from 2020 to 2060 is predicted and compared under different scenarios. The results show that the building sector can achieve the 2025 control target under the continuation of existing policies, but in order to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target, existing energy saving measures need to be strengthened. Finally, according to the prediction results, the suggestions on energy saving and emission-reduction measures in the building sector in Shanghai are put forward.
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