多源不确定性对地表水源热泵系统性能的影响
摘要：在水源热泵系统模拟中存在大量不容忽视的不确定性，按照来源可分为模型不确定性和参数不确定性。量化分析了模型不确定性及参数不确定性对地表水源热泵系统性能的影响。选取并验证了13个热泵机组经验模型，考虑的不确定性参数包括负荷侧不确定性参数和系统侧不确定性参数，探讨的影响结果有系统能耗、节能性及经济性，并采用全局敏感性分析方法分析了各不确定性影响因素对系统性能的影响程度。结果显示：多源不确定性对水源热泵系统性能评估影响显著，系统全年累计能耗在264～1 107 t之间波动，相比传统空调系统的节能率为-78.5%～32.0%;系统运行20年后的投资净现值为-416万～663万元，节能率和投资净现值为负值的概率分别为23%和8%;对不确定性量化结果影响最为显著的因素为室外气象参数、机组COP、热泵机组模型、人员及新风。
关键词：水源热泵模型不确定性参数不确定性敏感性分析节能率投资净现值
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Effect of multi-source uncertainty on performance of surface water-source heat pump systems
Abstract: There are a lot of uncertainties that cannot be ignored in the simulation of water-source heat pump systems, and they can be divided into the model uncertainty and the parameter uncertainty according to the source. This paper quantitatively analyses the effects of model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty on the performance of surface water-source heat pump systems. Thirteen empirical models of heat pump units are selected and verified. The uncertain parameters considered include the uncertain parameters on the load side and on the system side, and the results discussed include system energy consumption, energy saving and economy. The global sensitivity analysis method is used to analyse the influence of various uncertain factors on the system performance. The results show that the multi-source uncertainty has a significant impact on the performance evaluation of the water-source heat pump system, the cumulative energy consumption of the system is 264 t to 1 107 t throughout the year, and the energy saving rate is-78.5% to 32.0% compared with the traditional air conditioning system.The net present value of the system investment is-4.16 to 6.63 million yuan after 20 years of operation, and the probability that the energy saving rate and the net present value of investment are negative is 23% and 8%, respectively. The most significant factors affecting the uncertainty quantization results are outdoor meteorological parameters, COP of heat pump unit, heat pump model, personnel and outdoor air volume.
Keywords: water-source heat pump; model uncertainty; parameter uncertainty; sensitivity analysis; energy saving rate; net present value of investment;
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