通过通风系统感染新冠病毒的风险评估模型
摘要：为评估在通风系统中可能出现的危险事件对室内病毒浓度或室内人群感染病毒概率的影响，根据新冠病毒传播机理，基于空气传染病概率模型和风险矩阵法，提出了通过通风系统感染新冠病毒的风险评估模型，该模型包含对病毒传播有重要影响的危险事件发生概率、新风量、呼吸通风量、暴露时间等主要参数。以室内人群感染病毒概率作为后果的量化指标进行算例分析，结果表明，室内人群感染病毒概率受危险事件发生概率和其后果严重程度共同影响，危险事件发生可能性和对通风系统中关键参数新风量和消杀效率的影响越大，易感人群的平均感染概率越大。
关键词：通风系统新冠病毒风险评估模型感染概率风险因子新风量消杀效率病毒浓度
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Risk assessment model of SAS-CoV-2 infection through ventilation systems
Abstract: In order to assess the impact of the possible dangerous events in ventilation systems on the indoor virus concentration or the probability of virus infection of indoor population, according to the transmission mechanism of the SAS-CoV-2, based on the air infectious disease probability model and the risk matrix method, a risk assessment model of SAS-CoV-2 infection through ventilation systems is proposed. The model includes the main parameters such as the probability of occurrence of dangerous events, the outdoor air rate, the respiratory ventilation rate and the exposure time, which have an important influence on virus transmission. Taking the virus infection probability of indoor population as a quantitative indicator of the consequences, the results show that the virus infection probability of indoor population is affected by the probability of dangerous events and the severity of their consequences. The greater the possibility of dangerous events and the impact on the key parameters of ventilation systems such as outdoor air rate and sterilization efficiency, the greater the average infection probability of the susceptible population.
Keywords: ventilation system; SAS-CoV-2; risk assessment model; infection probability; risk factor; outdoor air rate; sterilization efficiency; virus concentration;
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